Determination of the critical risk zone for the indicator of foreign trade import coverage by the export of goods and services subject to its normal distribution

Abstract

Today, there is a need for new scientific and methodological approaches to determine the effectiveness of foreign trade activity of the state, which will allow not only careful analysis and forecasting of export-import operations of the country, but also at the same time make informed, wellgrounded management decisions. The calculated values of the cumulative frequency and some numerical characteristics for the empirical and statistical series of the world index of import coverage by export for Ukraine for the period 1996-2017 are presented. Confidence intervals were found for: general mean, variance, root mean square deviation; the Pearson test of the normal law of distribution of the world export coverage indicator for Ukraine for the period 1996-2017 was tested. The same hypothesis was also tested using the three sigma rule. Areas of permissible, critical and catastrophic risk by the rule of three sigmas are presented, which makes it possible to analyze the belonging to these areas of the world index of coverage of imports by export for Ukraine, which is distributed according to the normal law of distribution. It is substantiated that after 2013 the global indicator for Ukraine of import cover by export has entered the area of critical risk and will be in it with a forecast until 2019, and then may enter the area of catastrophic risk. It is proved that for the future development of foreign trade Ukraine needs strategic transformations in the national foreign trade policy. The main direction of its development should be the use of instruments for increasing the export volumes of goods and services and reducing the country's import dependence, in particular on goods. At the same time, the structure of export and import should be optimized with a focus on reducing the volume of the latter.