Forecasting hotel income in current unstable development situations

Abstract

The article describes the development of an economic-mathematical model that allows to identify the influence of factors on the formation of income of hotels and similar accommodation in Ukraine and to forecast the level of hotel industry income. To create an economic-mathematical model, the analysis of statistical data characterizing the hotel industry in Ukraine for the period from 2010 to 2019 has been carried out. To forecast the hotels income and similar accommodation for the short term, a forecast of such indicators as operating costs of hotels and similar accommodation, housing resources of hotels and similar accommodation has been built. To do this, Box-Jenkins method (ARIMA), which is a part of the Statistica application package, is used. On the basis of the economic-mathematical model the forecast of influence of operating expenses and housing resources of hotels and similar accommodation on income of hotels and similar accommodation has been made. The analysis of the main parameters of the economic-mathematical model, which are quite significant (there is a close relationship between other indicators, the proximity of the economic-mathematical model to sample statistics, the significance of factors on the studied indicator, the homogeneity of the forecast complex, the proximity of empirical theoretical distribution, absence of multicollinearity), as well as surpluses demonstrates that we have created an adequate model of short-term forecast. According to the forecast for 2020-2022 in Ukraine, some reduction in operating costs, housing resources in hotels and similar accommodation and income of hotels and similar accommodation is expected. This situation is due to the current unstable situations that have arisen in the country and in the world. The hotel business is strongly influenced by various internal and external factors: economic, social, geopolitical, legislative transformations, force majeure, climatic conditions, market dynamics, including goods, services and resources. Directly or indirectly, these factors determine the amount of income of hotels and similar accommodation, as an important indicator of development, due to the price aspects in the market of hotel services and the demand for hotel services.