Forecast of the possible amount of investment attraction using Monte Carlo imitation modeling

Abstract

The system of remote corporate governance (SRCG) is aimed at increasing the efficiency of the conduct of general meetings of shareholders by identifying the issues and their level of real support by shareholders. Building internal communications between shareholders, SRCG allows increasing the influence of small shareholders in making important management decisions, which in turn can increase the level of protection of their rights. It is expected that SRCG will improve the investment attractiveness of public companies. To assess the potential investment resources it is necessary to make forecasts. Modeling of future based on construction scenarios was chosen among the various methods of forecast of the possible amount of capital raising. Developed scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic and average) were refined through the use of the Monte Carlo simulation modeling method. Making forecasts about possible amount of investment attraction by building scenarios using the Monte Carlo simulation modeling method. Modeling the future on the basis of building scenarios. This forecasting method was used to compile alternative economic forecasts; Monte Carlo simulation modeling method was used to refine the forecast values of attracting investment resources. Three scenarios of the possible amount of capital raising were developed: optimistic, pessimistic and average; composed forecast for PC "Volodarka" of the estimated amount of issue of the shares and their price; adapted the Monte Carlo simulation modeling method to calculate the probability of involvement of different amounts of investment resources; probability to attract investment in the amount from 1 to 7 mln UAH is about 71%; calculated the most likely (probability is about 22%) the amount of which may reduce the authorized capital – from 5 to 7 mln UAH; developed measures for reducing (neutralizing) the risk of depreciation of the shares. Based on the calculations, we can conclude that SRCG can be implemented in real-world economic conditions and provide significant attraction of investment resources into public companies.